2035 Climate Targets Divide EU Ahead of COP30 Showdown
By: Abudu Olalekan
Brussels. Thursday. Ministers are sweating — and not just from the late summer heat.
They’re fighting over numbers. Big ones. The kind that could define Europe’s climate future.
An internal note, seen by Reportersroom, lays it bare: EU nations are split. Deeply. On 2035 emissions targets — the next big step under the Paris Agreement.
COP30 looms in Brazil. UNGA kicks off in days. The world’s watching. But inside the EU bubble? Chaos.
Originally, the Danish presidency wanted a 2040 target decision this week. Gone. Dropped. Too hot. Countries said: Not ready.
Now? The real battle’s over 2035.
Two camps. Two visions.
Camp 1: The cautious.
Call them “less ambitious.” They want cuts “closer to 66%” by 2035. Linear path. Slow and steady from 2030 to 2050. No surprises. No shocks. Poland, Czechia, Hungary, Slovakia — they’re here. They whisper: We need time. We need balance.
Camp 2: The firebrands.
“More ambitious.” They want a strong signal. A 2035 target between 66% and 72.5%. And they want it now. Before UNGA. Before the world’s leaders gather in New York. A bold statement. A warning shot to the globe: Europe’s serious.
They argue: If we wait, we look weak. If we delay, we lose leverage at COP30.
Under the Paris deal, every country must update its NDC — Nationally Determined Contribution — every five years. The EU’s due. And it must include 2035. And hint at 2040. All to be unveiled in Belem.
But here’s the catch: the EU isn’t one country. It’s 27. And they can’t agree.
Some want the 2035 NDC and the 2040 target bundled. Adopted together. One package. One punch. “It strengthens our global voice,” says a Nordic diplomat. “We go to COP30 with a full roadmap.”
But others? Cold feet.
France, Germany, Italy — they didn’t kill the idea. But they kicked it upstairs. To the European Council. To the heads of state. In October.
Why? Politics.
Czechia, Hungary, Poland — they’re hoping their bosses will water down the 90% 2040 target proposed by the Commission. They want wiggle room. Escape clauses. “We can’t commit without guarantees,” a Warsaw official muttered.
Meanwhile, Paris, Berlin, Rome? They’re not backing down. But they want “framework conditions.” Translation: Show us the money. The tech. The transition plan. Prove it’s fair.
Denmark’s desperate. They don’t want to show up at UNGA empty-handed. So they’re drafting two options:
- Low-range NDCs — safer, but weak.
- Split the targets — 2035 now, 2040 later.
But even that’s messy.
An EU diplomat sighed: “We’re not even aiming for a Council position yet. Just a debate. A guidance.”
And time? Running out.
The note warns: No decision at Coreper? Then expect an extraordinary Environment Council before COP30. Last-minute. High-pressure. Classic EU drama.
One insider laughed bitterly: “We’re not leading. We’re negotiating with ourselves.”
Meanwhile, the climate doesn’t wait.
Fires in Spain. Floods in Romania. Heat records broken. Again.
And outside Europe? The Global South watches. The US hesitates. China builds solar and coal.
If the EU can’t agree on a number… what does that say?
That we’re still arguing over the basics.
That we’re still trading percentages while the planet burns.
That even the “greenest” bloc on Earth struggles to walk its talk.
A junior negotiator, sipping coffee outside the Berlaymont, said it plain:
“We talk about 90%. But 66%? That’s not ambition. That’s fear.”
And fear? Doesn’t inspire the world.
The ministers meet today.
They’ll talk.
They’ll stall.
They’ll compromise.
But the real question isn’t the number.
It’s whether they still believe in the mission.
Because COP30 isn’t about targets.
It’s about trust.
And right now?
Europe’s got a credibility problem.
