“We’re Ready to Strike”—But the US Military Isn’t So Sure About Nigeria

By: Abudu Olalekan

Donald Trump’s latest tweet sent shockwaves through the Pentagon.

“Prepare for military intervention in Nigeria to protect Christians.” Just like that, America’s war machine was put on notice. But here’s the problem: no one in Washington actually wants another forever war.

Now, the US military is scrambling—drafting three contingency plans for Nigeria, each riskier than the last. But insiders? They’re already calling it a “potential disaster.”

“Light, Medium, or Heavy?”—None of Them Are Great
The options landed on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s desk after Trump’s social media order. His response? A quick “Yes, Sir.” But behind closed doors? Total chaos.

Here’s what’s on the table:

“Light Option” – More intel, logistics, maybe a few joint raids with Nigerian forces against Boko Haram and ISWAP. Sounds simple, right? Except Nigeria’s military has a corruption problem, and past US support hasn’t exactly stopped the killings.

“Medium Option” – Drone strikes. Blow up militant camps, take out convoys. But there’s a catch: America lost its drone bases in Niger last year. Now, the closest launch sites? Southern Europe or Djibouti. That’s like trying to fight a fire from across the ocean.

“Heavy Option” – Send an aircraft carrier into the Gulf of Guinea. Full-scale airstrikes. The kind of operation that screams “another Iraq.” And guess what? No one wants that.

“It would be a fiasco,” said Maj. Gen. Paul D. Eaton (ret.), who trained Iraqi forces. “Airstrikes create shock and awe, but not solutions. It’s like pounding a pillow—lots of noise, no real change.”

The Problem? It’s Not Just About Religion
Trump’s tweet made it sound simple: Christians vs. Muslims. But the reality? Way messier.

“This isn’t just a holy war,” a US national security official admitted. “It’s insurgency, poverty, bad governance, and farmers vs. herders fighting over land. Boko Haram and ISWAP exploit all of it.”

And then there’s Russia. After the US pulled out of Niger, Moscow moved in. Now, Russian forces control the drone bases America used to rely on. So even if the US wanted to launch strikes from Agadez or Niamey? Too late.

Nigeria’s Government: “Thanks, But… Respect Our Sovereignty”
Abuja’s response was polite but firm.

“We welcome US help against terrorism,” a senior Nigerian official said. “But any action must respect our sovereignty. No foreign boots on our soil without our say-so.”

Translation: Don’t turn Nigeria into another US warzone.

“We’ve Seen This Movie Before—It Ends Badly”
The Pentagon’s been here before. Iraq. Afghanistan. Libya. All started with big promises. All ended in messy withdrawals.

“This isn’t just about stopping attacks,” a senior Pentagon official warned. “It’s about what happens after. Do we really want to get stuck in another counterinsurgency?”

The answer, from most insiders? Hell no.

So What’s Next?
Right now, the plans are just options on paper. Trump’s tweet was more bluster than strategy. But if he pushes forward?

Best-case scenario? A few drone strikes, some intel sharing, and a quick PR win.
Worst-case scenario? Another endless war, more civilian deaths, and Boko Haram using US strikes as a recruiting tool.
“The last thing Nigeria needs is more foreign intervention,” said a Lagos-based security analyst. “What they need is better governance, less corruption, and real development. Bombs won’t fix that.”

The Bottom Line: A War No One Wants
Trump’s threat might play well with his base. But the military? They’re dragging their feet. The Nigerian government? Wary. And the people caught in the crossfire? They’re the ones who’ll pay the price.

One thing’s clear: If America goes in, getting out won’t be easy.