Tinubu’s 2027 Power Play – How APC Plans to Lock Down South, North-Central
By: Abudu Olalekan
Here’s the thing about Nigerian politics—it’s never just about the next election. It’s about the next move. And right now? President Bola Tinubu’s APC is making theirs.
They’re not waiting for 2027. They’re not hoping for the best. They’re engineering it.
The Problem: The North is Slipping Away
Let’s be real. Tinubu didn’t win in 2023 because Nigeria loved him. He won because the North—Buhari’s stronghold—delivered. 5.3 million votes. That’s more than half his total.
But now? The North is turning.
The Northern Elders Forum? They’re done. “We won’t support him again.” The Arewa Consultative Forum? Same story. Even Buhari’s loyalists—El-Rufai, Malami, Salihu Lukman—are quietly mobilizing against him.
“Marginalization.” That’s the word they’re throwing around. Too many Southern faces in power. Too few projects in the North. Too much insecurity, too little action.
And the numbers don’t lie. If the North flips, Tinubu loses. Simple as that.
The Solution: Lock Down the South, Sweep the North-Central
So what’s the APC’s play? Don’t just fight for the North—make sure you don’t need it.
Enter the “bloc vote strategy.”
Five months in the making. A “materializing countermeasure,” as one APC insider put it. The brains behind it? Gbajabiamila. Uzodimma. Basiru. Faleke. The usual suspects.
The goal? Control the South. Dominate the North-Central. Neutralize the North.
Here’s how:
- The South: No Opposition Allowed
In 2023, Tinubu lost nine Southern states. Nine. Obi took Lagos, the Southeast, parts of the South-South. Atiku grabbed Osun, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom.
“Never again.”
The APC’s plan? Flip them. All of them.
“Targeted alliances. Elite outreach. Federal influence.” That’s the official line. Translation? Pressure. Persuasion. Whatever it takes.
And it’s working.
Osun’s governor? Already pledged support. PDP governors in the South? Defecting one by one. “Except for Abia and Oyo, the South is ours,” an APC source boasted.
“Once we secure the South, we’re 50% to victory.”
- The North-Central: The Game-Changer
But the South isn’t enough. Not if the North revolts.
So the APC is going all-in on the North-Central—Plateau, Nasarawa, the FCT—states Obi won in 2023.
“The final straw that breaks the camel’s back,” one official called it.
How? Leverage.
Tinubu’s been stacking the region with power. The SGF? North-Central. INEC Chairman? North-Central. APC National Chairman? North-Central.
“Since 1999, no president has given us this much,” gushed Saleh Zazzaga, North-Central APC Forum chairman. “We’re giving him 80-90% of our votes.”
Businessmen. Clerics. Youth groups. They’re all in. “Hand in hand with the Presidency,” Zazzaga said.
And the endgame? A North-Central candidate in 2031. “After Tinubu’s second term, it’s our turn.”
The Opposition’s Response: “They’re Delusional”
Not everyone’s impressed.
The PDP? “They’re trying to stifle democracy.” The ADC? “Self-deception.” The NNPP? “The people will rise.”
Bolaji Abdullahi (ADC) didn’t hold back: “They’ve lost the people. That’s why they’re desperate.”
Even the APC’s own chairman admitted: “The governors have failed. The people should hold them accountable.”
And the NNPP’s Ladipo Johnson? He laughed. “2027 isn’t about governors. It’s about the people vs. the APC. And the people? They’re angry.”
The Reality: Can Tinubu Pull It Off?
Here’s the thing—Nigerian elections aren’t won on paper. They’re won in backrooms. In deals. In last-minute surprises.
The APC’s plan? Smart. Ruthless. Classic Tinubu.
But the opposition isn’t dead yet. The North is restless. The economy is a mess. And the people? They’re tired.
“The election will be the people against the APC,” Johnson said. “And the people? They’re ready to fight.”
So who wins? We’ll find out in 2027.
But one thing’s for sure—Tinubu isn’t leaving it to chance.
