South-South politics – Intrigues and realignments that will shape 2027

By: Abudu Olalekan

INEC finally dropped the 2027 election timetable last week. And just like that, everywhere scatter.

All the political gladiators has started moving. Phone calls, night meetings, quiet testing of waters. Who makes the ballot in 2027? That’s the only gist now.

In this report — me, Suyi Ayodele, Regional Editor South-South and South-East, with Moses Idahosa, Alphonsus Agbor, Olawale Sanusi and Joseph Abasi-Abasi filing from the states — we look at what’s really playing out on the ground.

Six states. Different timetables. Delta, Rivers, Akwa Ibom and Cross River will do governorship on February 6, 2027, same day as the general election. Bayelsa and Edo? Off-season. Their own go come much later. That small difference is already changing how people calculate.

Edo: everybody is fighting everybody

If you want drama, start from Edo South. Permutations, alignments, realignments. Money moving. Loyalty being priced. It is supposed to be the strongest bloc — seven local governments, huge votes — but right now it looks rudderless.

No clear leader. The political class behave like members of an acephalous society. Everybody is king in his corner.

Edo Central and Edo North have their own wahala too, but South is the loudest.

Take Oredo Federal Constituency in APC. It’s already a three-way brawl. Osaro Obazee, ex-council boss. Dr Paddy Iyamu, former commissioner for education. And the sitting Rep, Eseosa Iyawe. Party leaders like Obazee for his consistency, but nobody wants to openly oppose the governor, who many believe is quietly pushing Iyamu.

In Ovia, Omosede Igbinedion might be coming back. Daughter of Chief Gabriel Igbinedion, the Esama of Benin. Big name. She has legislative experience before. In Ovia and Benin City, that name still opens doors. Fast.

PDP and Labour? Still scattered. Too many internal fights, not enough serious declarations. ADC is the surprise. If APC thought 2027 would be a stroll in Edo, they should go back to the drawing board. Watch Matthew Iduoriyekemwen — old grassroots warhorse. Proper wildcard.

For Edo South Senate, APC looks like they have settled for Omoregie Ogbeide-Ihama. But incumbent Neda Imasuen isn’t going anywhere. Matthew Urhoghide, who did two terms before, is circling. Ehiozuwa Agbonayinma is in the mix. Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu too. Still, Ogbeide-Ihama have both street followership and top party backing.

Edo Central is calmer. Governor Monday Okpebholo is from there, so the zone feels favoured. It’s Agbazilo versus Okpebho — they always balance it. PDP messed up in 2023 by giving Clifford Odia a third ticket from Agbazilo. The people vexed and voted Okpebholo from Okpebho. Now Okpebholo is governor, so Senate naturally swings back to Agbazilo in 2027. Enter Kenneth Imansuangbon — ‘Rice Man’. Over 20 years sharing rice every December. He just joined ADC. That alone has changed the maths.

Edo North? Peace. One name: Adams Oshiomhole. Comrade. Two-time governor, former APC national chairman. Cult-like followership across Etsako, Owan, Akoko-Edo — from Uzairue, Auchi, Okpella, Weppa-Wanno down to Ekperi and Anegbete. Party don already give am automatic ticket for 2027.

Delta: three senators, plenty enemies

APC in Delta just finished congresses from ward to national. On paper, they have balanced things. In reality, the three incumbents are sweating — Joel-Onowakpo Thomas (South), Ede Dafinone (Central), and Ned Nwoko (North).

Delta South is ethnic mathematics as usual — Isoko, Ijaw, Itsekiri. Joel-Onowakpo is Isoko and wants to stay. Chief Itiako Ikpokpo, ‘Malik’, ex-Isoko South chairman and former ALGON boss, is warming up. Then there’s Barr Jay Ogor, younger brother to Leo Ogor. New face, old name.

From Itsekiri, Pastor Michael Diden, Ejele, is still formidable. He ran in 2023. With an Isoko man on the seat, Itsekiri and Ijaw will push for rotation. His own kinsman Solomon Arenyeka is now APC state chairman — that could help or hurt. If anti-incumbency grows, Ejele benefits. And don’t write off James Manager. Ijaw leader. 20 years in Senate, 2003 to 2023. Deep network everywhere.

Delta North is the main event. Ned Nwoko versus the Okowa machine. People close to Okowa say he has shelved any personal Senate ambition. Both men are now in APC after the mass defection, but they are far from friends. Nwoko boycotted the last state congress — said it was compromised from ward up.

Ironically, Nwoko left PDP early for APC because he feared Okowa would block him. Now Okowa don join APC too. Nwoko’s edge is the Anioma State campaign — grassroots love am for that. But Okowa’s structure is still massive.

An aide to Okowa, who don’t want name in print, told us: “Oga is not contesting Senate or anything. He is focused on working for APC, delivering president and governor in 2027.”

Instead, Okowa is pushing Dr Hilary Ibegbulem, his former Principal Secretary. That’s how to keep the structure alive and give Nwoko a real fight. At same time, he’s ensuring his daughter Marilyn Okowa-Daramola returns to the Delta Assembly for Ika North-East. Victor Ochie, ex-Speaker and now Tennis Federation president, is also eyeing Senate. But the real fight is Nwoko versus Okowa’s family.

Head or tail, whoever Okowa and Governor Sheriff Oborevwori back in North will likely pick the ticket.

What of Ovie Omo-Agege?former Deputy Senate President. Quiet since the PDP-APC merger in April 2025. Last time he spoke publicly was at the Asaba stakeholders meeting, begging the party not to forget his loyalists. Pressure is on him to drop guber ambition and take Delta Central Senate. That means a clash with incumbent Ede Dafinone, who has been delivering projects and wants second term. Plus John Nani, DESOPADEC chairman and ex-Ethiope West lawmaker, is also eyeing that seat.

Rivers: Wike vs Fubara

Rivers is different movie. Governor Sim Fubara is facing a succession battle with his predecessor, now FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike.

Wike’s boys — Boma Iyaye, Alabo Dakorinama, George Kelly, Erastus Awortu, Isaac Kamalu, Cyril Hart — are already positioning. But Wike last week warned them. Said anybody parading as aspirant now has been “marked red”. He accused some of using ethnic sentiment online, called it divisive and unacceptable.

There is quiet talk Fubara might be offered Senate as soft landing. In ADC, names like Dakuku Peterside and Sokonte Davies are coming up. Dark horses? Tammy Danagogo, former Sports Minister. And Dumo Lulu-Briggs is watching from the side.

Cross River: ADC just got serious

Governor Bassey Otu is consolidating. Endorsements falling in from everywhere. He told appointees who want to run in 2027 to resign on or before March 26, 2026. As at today, nobody has submitted letter.

PDP took a big hit after the exodus but is trying to rebuild. The real story is ADC. Liyel Imoke, Donald Duke, and Gershom Bassey have now pitched tent there. Imoke and Gershom resigned from PDP last month citing crisis. With Duke already in ADC, that’s three heavyweights under one roof. Game changed.

For NASS, watch the North — Ben Ayade versus incumbent Jarigbe Agom Jarigbe. That one go be fire. Central — Commissioner Oden Ewa is being touted to challenge Senator Eteng Jonah Williams. Eteng has incumbency and visibility, he won’t be easy. In the House of Reps, younger politicians are pushing hard. Generational shift is real.

Bayelsa: off-cycle but already hot

Bayelsa governorship is late 2027, but realignment don start. Quiet beef between Governor Douye Diri and his predecessor Senator Seriake Dickson for control of the state.

Dickson, Bayelsa Central senator, wants second term. He even floated a new platform, National Democratic Congress (NDC). At their NEC he said those “aggrieved and sidelined from African Congress, which is now about to collapse under weight of its own greed” should join NDC.

Traditionally, Bayelsa lawmakers do one term and go. Only Alfred Agbedi broke it — Ekeremor/Sagbama Rep for years. Now Agbedi wants Senate Central. Direct collision with Dickson.

In Bayelsa East, there’s a gentleman’s agreement between Nembe/Brass and Ogbia — rotate one term each. Only Heineken Lokpobiri, now Minister of State for Petroleum, did two terms.

Diri, like Dickson anointed him, wants to pick his successor. Names from East where zoning favours: Abraham Ingobere from Akassa, Dr Samuel Ogbuku, NDDC MD from Ogbia, and Senator Benson Agadaga, also Ogbia. Plus Lokpobiri from West — not zoned to him, but he has deep pocket and federal might.

At the end, everybody will still consult Goodluck Jonathan. Ex-President. His word still carry weight for Bayelsa.

That’s South-South for you right now. Early days. But the intrigues is already plenty.