2027 election: Tinubu eyes North’s 56 million voters

By: Abudu Olalekan

President Bola Tinubu and All Progressives Congress leaders will be in Kaduna on Saturday. Campaign flag-off. Re-election bid. And the message is simple: the North matters.

Why? The numbers. The North has 56.01 million of Nigeria’s 103.43 million registered voters. That’s 54.2 per cent. More than half. In a presidential election, that is not a small thing.

The APC is not pretending otherwise. About 31 state governors and other party chieftains are expected at the Kaduna rally. Party leaders say there is a growing consensus among northern stakeholders and voters. Their target? A bold 40 million votes, built through grassroots engagement, especially among women.

But the opposition is not buying the optimism. Atiku Abubakar’s camp says economic hardship, rising living costs and persistent insecurity could hurt Tinubu’s re-election bid. Their argument: Nigerians across regional and religious lines are ready to vote the ruling party out.

Kaduna is a loaded choice. The North holds huge numerical weight in presidential elections. And Tinubu lost Kaduna in 2023. Starting his 2027 campaign there is a statement.

Salihu Mustapha, a member of Arewa for Asiwaju and former APC National Vice Chairman for the North-East, said there is consensus in Kaduna and across the North to support Tinubu in 2027. He pointed to political appointments and increased revenue allocations to state governments. He also said security had improved compared with previous years, even though challenges remain.

Farouk Aliyu, APC chieftain and Head of the Presidential Campaign Council’s Stage Organisation and Management, is confident too. He admitted the contest would be tough. But he said the party would campaign everywhere in the North and ask for patience.

The other side? Atiku’s camp is blunt. Paul Ibe, Special Adviser on Media to the former Vice-President, told Reportersroom that the hardship in the country has made Tinubu’s re-election bid untenable. He said the 2027 election is a bread-and-butter issue.

“There is a consensus on the level of suffering of the Nigerian people. This is not just about the North or the South. The issue is neither about North-Central, North-East and North-West nor is it about South-South, South-East and South-West. This election is a bread-and-butter issue: it is about the economy,” Ibe said.

He added: “There is no petrol station in this country where there is disparity in the price of fuel sold to a Yoruba person, Hausa person or an Igbo person. There are no different prices in the market for goods sold to the hundreds of ethnic nationalities that make up Nigeria. Nigerians will express their frustration and the hopelessness of the situation at the ballot.”

Ibe also said the pain cuts across religion, region and generation. “The North and the South, Christians and Muslims and all shades of people, young and old are being affected by the suffering in the land. Even Nigerians who are not living on the shores of this country are wondering how those of us who do are coping with Tinubu’s handling of the nation’s affairs since he became President,” he said.

“We will be diminishing this argument if we limit it to either a North or South debate. Nigerians are feeling the pain, and they have resolved to vote out this government in 2027.”

Meanwhile, Oyo State Governor and presidential candidate of the Allied Peoples Movement, Seyi Makinde, has appealed to Nigerians to allow him complete the South’s four-year presidential tenure. He did not go into details.

The numbers behind the North’s power

INEC says Nigeria has 103.43 million registered voters across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.

Lagos leads with 7.49 million. Kano follows with 6.57 million. Kaduna has 4.66 million. Katsina has 3.88 million, Rivers 3.74 million, Oyo 3.59 million and Delta 3.53 million.

Then come Benue with 3.06 million; Ogun, 3.04 million; Bauchi, 3.01 million; Niger, 2.98 million; Anambra, 2.92 million; Plateau, 2.91 million; Edo, 2.87 million; Jigawa, 2.81 million; Borno, 2.77 million; Imo, 2.71 million; Sokoto, 2.63 million; Akwa Ibom, 2.57 million; Adamawa, 2.43 million; Osun, 2.33 million; Kebbi and Abia, 2.31 million each; Taraba, 2.25 million; Kogi, 2.23 million; Zamfara and Enugu, 2.22 million each; Nasarawa, 2.14 million; and Ondo, 2.12 million.

Cross River has 1.93 million, Kwara 1.92 million, Ebonyi 1.83 million, Gombe 1.77 million, Yobe 1.73 million, Bayelsa 1.20 million and Ekiti 1.06 million. The FCT has 1.73 million.

By zone, the North-West has the highest with 25.08 million. The South-West follows with 19.61 million. North-Central has 16.97 million. South-South has 15.82 million. North-East has 13.97 million, while South-East has 11.98 million.

The three northern zones together have 56.01 million voters. That is 54.2 per cent of the national total. The North has historically decided presidential elections, largely because of its size and turnout. In 2015, northern voters and stakeholders helped defeat then-President Goodluck Jonathan and elect Muhammadu Buhari. That history explains why Tinubu picked Kaduna as his starting point, even after losing the state in 2023.

Security tight, logistics moving

Ahead of Tinubu’s visit, Barnawa in Kaduna South Local Government Area saw heavy security. Army operatives. DSS. Police. NSCDC. State vigilante group. FRSC personnel. They patrolled major roads with sirens blaring. Heavily armed men moved through the neighbourhood. Saturday’s rally is clearly not being left to chance.

Reportersroom gathered on Thursday that the presidential advance team for security, protocol, medical services and media had been dispatched to Kaduna. A source said the APC and its state chapters were handling funding and logistics for other attendees.

“The team have left already. All of them — media, security, protocol, medical and others. It’s a big campaign, so everything needs to be done properly,” the official said.

Another official, who asked not to be named because he was not authorised to speak, said the party and state chapters were jointly handling much of the campaign finance. “It is the party and the states that are handling much of the campaign finance. But they are all working together,” he said.

The Presidential Campaign Council was inaugurated at the State House on October 14. Tinubu is chairman. Vice-President Kashim Shettima and APC National Chairman, Yilwatda, are vice-chairmen. Senator Abdulaziz Yari is Director-General.

The campaign schedule released on October 14 shows rallies in Calabar on November 2, Gombe on November 3, Lafia on November 4 and Ado-Ekiti on November 5. Activities will continue through January 2027.

The Kaduna State Local Organising Committee, chaired by Deputy Governor Hadiza Balarabe, said it had inspected the venue, Kaduna Flagship Stadium. The Minister of Defence, General Christopher Musa (retd.), led a security inspection on Wednesday.

The party’s case

Salihu Mustapha told Reportersroom that northern stakeholders are rallying behind Tinubu. He cited political appointments and increased revenue allocations to states.

He also claimed the administration had made progress in tackling insecurity in the North, arguing that the situation had improved compared with previous years, despite persistent security challenges.

“He has done a lot for the North, and you can see it in the political activities in the region. Northern politics is largely based on stakeholder consensus, not just heightened hostility on social media. Northern voters are not necessarily active on social media. The system works in such a way that every community has leadership, and the leadership internally determines where the votes go. And there is a consensus among northern leaders and voters to re-elect President Tinubu,” he said.

He added: “We have our sons and daughters appointed to various offices in this country. The appointments are not lopsided. It is virtually a 50-50 balance. He has ensured that all our governors get enough revenue to pay salaries and create opportunities. Thousands of students are enjoying the NELFUND student loan scheme, and security policies are being implemented across the northern states.

“No matter how we want to put it, we have been able to overcome certain levels of insecurity. Insecurity is dynamic, and its patterns keep changing. So, it will interest you to know that there is virtually a seamless consensus in the North supporting Asiwaju. You have seen campaign organisations such as Arewa for Asiwaju. Northern Nigeria has decided.”

Mustapha insisted Tinubu would not suffer the same fate as Jonathan in 2015.

“You can compare 2015 with 2027 and the APC government with the PDP government. During former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan’s administration, the political structure and individuals in the North were against him. The situation is different today, as the political structure and people of the North are behind President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

“They support him and will vote to re-elect him in January 2027 because of the laudable achievements of his administration. The North is behind him, and there is no cause for alarm. President Tinubu will not suffer the same fate as Jonathan.”

Farouk Aliyu said the party is optimistic about northern voters. He acknowledged the contest would be challenging, but said the APC would intensify efforts to persuade voters.

“We will campaign everywhere in the North for the President’s re-election because he deserves another term. The North and even the South will vote for him again. We will appeal to the people, show them what the government has done and ask for their patience. We will explain to them that the reforms were not introduced to harm them but to protect them. There will be no problem, by the grace of God. It will be tough, but it is not insurmountable,” Aliyu said.

He added: “There are voters who will be hostile supporters of other parties. It is not just the APC. It all depends on where you are strong and where you are not strong. That has nothing to do with the APC alone. It has to do with the party’s selection of voters.”

Dr Betta Edu, Co-Chair of the APC Presidential Campaign Council’s Directorate of Women Mobilisation, said Nigerians would begin to enjoy economic prosperity if Tinubu is re-elected. She argued that the country had passed the difficult phase of economic reforms.

She spoke in Kaduna on Thursday after leading members of the directorate on a courtesy visit to Deputy Governor Hadiza Balarabe, who chairs the local organising committee for the flag-off.

“We have gone through the reform phase already. Now it is time for prosperity. We are already at the gate of prosperity once President Tinubu is re-elected,” Edu said.

The former Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Alleviation said the directorate is targeting about 40 million votes for Tinubu and Vice-President Kashim Shettima in 2027. That, she said, will require sustained grassroots mobilisation and direct engagement with women, not just big crowds at rallies.

“Our plan as the PCC mobilisation directorate is to see that we can mobilise at least close to 40 million votes for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. And we cannot do this without getting down to the grassroots,” she said.

Edu said the directorate would engage women in markets, communities and households to understand their concerns and communicate the administration’s achievements. She urged APC women leaders and supporters in Kaduna to intensify peaceful, door-to-door campaigns. No intimidation. No coercion.

Balarabe assured the delegation that the Kaduna State Government and the flag-off committee were working to ensure a successful event. She said several planning and coordination meetings had been held, adding that Kaduna’s strategic position in northern Nigeria placed a responsibility on the state to show its organisational capacity.

“We try as much as possible to take any assignment given to us seriously,” the deputy governor said.

Ebola question

Meanwhile, the Minister of Health and Social Welfare, Prof. Muhammad Pate, has said there is no immediate need to cancel political campaigns, conferences or other large public gatherings after Nigeria confirmed an imported Ebola case.

Pate, however, warned that the government would review the situation and consider appropriate restrictions if the outbreak worsened. Any decision, he stressed, would be based on scientific evidence and public health considerations.

He spoke on Thursday in Abuja during a press briefing on the government’s response to the case. He assured Nigerians that the patient was receiving treatment and showing encouraging signs of recovery.

On political activities and public events, Pate said the government would not impose restrictions without evidence that they were necessary.

“At this moment, there is no indication that requires us to alter the course of large gatherings that have been planned,” he said.

“But if the situation changes, we’ll make a determination; we’ll consult broadly with the right experts and make that determination.”

He also cautioned political leaders against politicising the outbreak, describing public health as a unifying concern that transcends politics, religion and ethnicity.

“If there is one issue that will unite Nigerians, it is health, because health has no political party, has no citizenship, has no nationality, has no tribe, no religion. It is a great unifier,” he said.

Support group targets 10,000

Arewa for Asiwaju, a political support group backing Tinubu’s re-election bid, says it will mobilise 10,000 supporters from the 19 northern states and the Federal Capital Territory for the flag-off in Kaduna.

The group said the mobilisation is aimed at demonstrating its organisational strength and consolidating grassroots support for Tinubu’s second-term bid.

In a statement on Thursday, the group’s Head of Media Relations, Edwin Olofu, and Director-General, Mohammed Badaru, said the target reflected the movement’s determination to mobilise supporters across the North and the FCT.