Poverty Numbers in Nigeria — Government vs World Bank

By: Abudu Olalekan

Poverty Numbers — Who’s Telling the Truth?

139 million Nigerians live in poverty.

That’s what the World Bank said. October 2025. At the launch of their Nigeria Development Update. Calm tone. Hard number.

Then the Presidency hit back. Fast. Hard.

“Unrealistic,” they said.

Sunday Dare — Tinubu’s media adviser — dropped it on X. No press room. No long briefing. Just a post. Short. Sharp.

“The figure must be properly contextualised.”

Translation? We don’t agree.

They called the $2.15-a-day line — the global poverty benchmark — an “analytical construct.” Not real. Not a headcount. A model. From 2017. Based on PPP. Purchasing Power Parity. Fancy term. But here’s the kicker — at today’s rate, that $2.15 equals about N100,000 monthly.

More than the new minimum wage.

So how can someone earning below N70,000 be above the poverty line? Doesn’t add up. Or does it?

The government says the data’s old. Last major survey? 2018/19. Five years ago. A lifetime in Nigeria’s economy. Since then — subsidy removed. Naira crashed. Inflation ate salaries.

But they also say: look at the direction. Not the number. The trend.

We’re recovering, they insist. Reforms are working.

And they listed things. A lot of things.

Cash transfers. 15 million households. N297 billion paid since 2023. Digital enrolment. National register. Sounds good.

Then there’s the Renewed Hope Ward Programme. Every ward in Nigeria — 8,809 of them — getting micro-projects. Roads. Water. Jobs. At the grassroots.

N-Power. TraderMoni. FarmerMoni. School feeding. All still running. Growing, even.

Food subsidies. Fertiliser. Mechanisation. Gas-to-power projects. Skills hubs.

All part of the plan.

They called the reforms “painful but necessary.” Fuel subsidy gone. Exchange rate unified. Money redirected to infrastructure.

Even the World Bank admits — macro stability is returning. Growth ticking up. Reserves rising. Inflation slowing.

Mathew Verghis, their Nigeria director, compared it to India’s 1991 moment. Big claim.

But then he said: “People aren’t feeling it.”

That’s the problem.

Numbers up. Lives down.

139 million in poverty. Up from 129 million just months ago. 87 million in 2023. That’s not a glitch. It’s a crisis.

Labour leaders agree. Chris Onyeka from the NLC said: “We don’t need IMF reports. We see it every day.”

A N70,000 wage? Worth $46. Barely buys a bag of rice.

Tony Akeni from the Labour Party called it “paper growth.” No real impact.

PDP’s Timothy Osadolor was harsher. “Nigerians are dying of poverty,” he said. “You can see it on their faces.”

Others blamed debt. Loans piling up. More borrowing while people starve.

Bola Abdullahi of the ADC said: “GDP means nothing if stomachs are empty.”

Economists are split.

Muda Yusuf gets it — reforms caused the pain. Inflation spiked. Purchasing power gone. But now? Focus must shift. Welfare. Agriculture. Energy.

Akpan Ekpo, former VC, said growth at 4% won’t cut it. Needs to be 10%. Sustained. Like China. And cash handouts won’t fix systemic poverty.

Okechukwu Unegbu? Skeptical of the World Bank. Says they exaggerate. But — “poverty is everywhere. No denying that.”

Teslim Shitta-Bey called the reforms necessary. But warned — gains must reach the people.

Right now? They’re not.

So who’s right?

The Presidency says the number’s inflated. Based on old models. Not real-time.

World Bank says: yes, reforms are working — but people are worse off.

Both can’t be fully true. Or maybe they are.

Maybe the economy is stabilising. But the cost? Too high for too many.

Tinubu’s team wants credit for bold moves. Fair.

But leadership isn’t just about balance sheets. It’s about bellies.

And right now, millions are going to bed hungry.

No model. No PPP. No jargon. Just truth.