Domestic Refineries Were Doing Well — Until They Weren’t

By: Abudu Olalekan

For the first few months of 2026, things were actually looking promising. Petrol imports had been dropping steadily. In January, imported fuel accounted for about 24.8 million litres per day — a huge number. By February, that had crashed to just 3 million litres per day. Local refineries were picking up the slack and Nigerians were cautiously optimistic.

March and April continued that trend. Domestic refineries were producing more. Import volumes were shrinking. The dream of fuel self-sufficiency felt almost… possible.

Then May happened.

Imports surged back up to 5.9 million litres per day. Meanwhile, domestic refinery output did increase — up to 41.5 million litres daily, the highest in five months. But the imported fuel still had to come in and fill gaps that local production couldn’t cover.

Why Did Imports Spike?

Well, that’s the million naira question, isn’t it?

Reports from Reuters earlier in June pointed to problems at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery — the biggest refinery in Africa, which was supposed to change the game for Nigeria. The facility reportedly cut the operating rate of its gasoline-producing unit by about 34 percent from May 21st. The reasons? Feedstock constraints and some technical issues.

Industry watchers at IIR Energy said the refinery initially struggled after processing lighter crude grades. That reduced the raw material needed for gasoline production. Then there was apparently a mechanical problem with a flue gas slide gate valve. Repairs were underway but not done in time to prevent the import surge.

It’s frustrating. Because the data actually shows Nigeria making progress. Total petrol imports have fallen by roughly 76 percent between January and May — from 24.8 million litres per day down to 5.9 million. And domestic refineries now account for nearly 88 percent of the petrol supply in May, up from about 62 percent in January. That’s real progress.

But progress doesn’t mean you’re there yet.

Other Fuel Products Tell a Mixed Story

It wasn’t all bad news though. Diesel — the product that keeps generators running and trucks moving — saw one of the biggest improvements. Total diesel supply jumped from 10.2 million litres per day in April to 18.8 million litres per day in May. An 84 percent increase. And here’s the kicker — all of it came from domestic sources. Not a single litre of imported diesel in May. Down from 1.7 million litres per day in April.

Jet fuel also saw growth. Daily supply went from 2.6 million litres to 3.6 million litres. A 38.5 percent rise.

But cooking gas? That took a hit. LPG supply dropped from 4.5 kilotonnes per day to 4.1. Not dramatic but it’s a decline when you’d expect things to be going up.

The Numbers Don’t Always Add Up

Here’s something interesting. Even though total petrol supply went up in May, actual consumption went down. PMS consumption dropped from 51.1 million litres per day in April to 46.3 million litres in May. Diesel consumption fell too — from 17.3 million to 16 million litres daily.

And yet, stock sufficiency dropped. PMS reserves fell from 17.7 days in April to just 16 days in May. Diesel stocks went from 39 days to 31 days. That tells you something about how tight the supply chain really is. Even with more product coming in, there’s less cushion than before.

What Does This All Mean?

For the average Nigerian filling up at the pump, probably not much in the short term. The fuel is still flowing. Prices haven’t changed dramatically. But the underlying message is clear — Nigeria still can’t fully feed itself with locally refined products.

For decades the country relied on imports despite sitting on massive crude oil reserves. Recent investments in domestic refining — Dangote, the Port Harcourt refinery rehabilitation, the Warri and Kaduna upgrades — are changing that equation. Slowly. But they’re changing it.

The NMDPRA data proves local refineries are making a real difference. Nearly 88 percent of petrol from domestic sources in May is no small feat. But until feedstock supply is stable, until maintenance cycles are predictable, until the refineries can run at full capacity consistently — imports will still be needed.

And that’s the reality nobody really wants to talk about.