World Bank Loan: Nigeria Seeks $1.25bn Facility as Debt Concerns Mount
By: Abudu Olalekan
Nigeria’s $1.25bn World Bank loan negotiations enter final stage. Reportersroom analysis reveals debt implications, AGF warnings, and expert concerns ahead of June 2026 approval.
So here’s the thing—Nigeria’s government is back at the World Bank’s door. Again. This time, they’re asking for $1.25 billion. And from what Reportersroom has learned, this isn’t just another proposal gathering dust in some bureaucrat’s drawer. It’s moved. Fast.
The project—get this—is called “Nigeria Actions for Investment and Jobs Acceleration.” Fancy name for a loan, right? But the timeline is what catches your eye. June 26, 2026. That’s when World Bank bigwigs will supposedly vote on it. And here’s the kicker: that’s barely six months before Nigerians head to the polls in January 2027. Politically convenient timing? Maybe. Maybe not.
This would be Tinubu’s second-biggest World Bank haul. The first was that $1.5 billion RESET facility back in June 2024. So yeah, we’re talking serious money here. At today’s rate—N1,361.4 to a dollar—we’re looking at roughly N1.70 trillion. Trillion. Let that sink in.
The debt numbers? They’re something else. If this goes through, Nigeria’s external debt jumps from N74.43 trillion ($51.86bn) to at least N76.13 trillion ($53.11bn). Total public debt climbs from N159.28 trillion to N160.98 trillion. In dollars, that’s $110.97bn to $112.22bn. Just like that.
Reportersroom got its hands on the World Bank’s Programme Information Document Monday. The loan’s already cleared concept and appraisal. Now it’s at the decision meeting stage—that’s banking-speak for “management’s taking a final look before the board votes.” Translation: the deal’s pretty much cooked. Terms agreed. Conditions set. Just needs the rubber stamp.
The document says it plain: “The review did authorise the team to appraise and negotiate.” So it’s happening.
Federal Ministry of Finance is the implementing agency. The money’s supposed to expand access to finance, digital services, electricity, plus some tax, trade, and agriculture reforms. The usual package.
But here’s where it gets interesting. The Accountant-General, Dr Shamseldeen Ogunjimi, is getting antsy. Last week, he basically told the World Bank: drag your feet beyond six months, and we might walk away. Not bluffing. His spokesman Bawa Mokwa put it out there after a meeting with World Bank’s Treed Lane in Abuja.
Ogunjimi’s point? These are loans, not gifts. “If approvals take more than six months, the Nigerian Government may no longer honour such arrangements,” he said. Strong words from a guy who signs the checks.
Yet the World Bank’s Mansir Nasir told Reportersroom that’s not how they work anyway. Funds don’t drop in one chunk—they come in bits, based on meeting specific conditions. So delays are built into the system, really.
Between June 2023 and May 2026, the World Bank’s already approved about $9.35 billion for Nigeria. That’s RESET, ARMOR, HOPE, SPIN, education packages—the whole alphabet soup of development programs. If this $1.25bn clears, Tinubu’s total hits $10.6 billion. The World Bank is basically Nigeria’s reform piggy bank.
But—and this is a big but—many approved loans just sit there. Undisbursed. Because Nigeria hasn’t ticked all the policy boxes. Classic case of money on the table you can’t touch.
The debt itself keeps growing. Nigeria’s World Bank tab rose $2.08 billion in one year to $19.89 billion by December 2025. That’s 11.7% jump. Most of it’s from IDA (the cheap loans for poor countries), which went from $16.56bn to $18.51bn. The rest is IBRD. Together, they make up 38% of Nigeria’s entire external debt.
Economists are split. Adewale Abimbola, a Lagos-based economist, says concessionary loans aren’t evil. “Borrowing isn’t bad; what matters is utilisation,” he told Reportersroom. If the money fuels viable projects with real revenue potential, fine. Fair point.
But Dr Aliyu Ilias of CSA Advisory isn’t buying it. His question: why borrow more when the government’s bragging about higher revenues post-subsidy removal? Something doesn’t add up.
Dr Muda Yusuf from the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise is worried about sustainability. “Without strong cash flow to meet repayment schedules,” he warned, “Nigeria risks falling into a vicious cycle of borrowing to service existing loans.” He’d rather see domestic debt—easier to manage, less exchange rate headache.
The Nigerian Economic Summit Group dropped a report Monday that basically says: don’t be fooled by the numbers. Yes, the Debt Burden Index dropped from 83.6 points in 2023 to 70.9 in 2024. But that’s surface-level. The underlying stress? Still there. Public debt-to-GDP hit 40.6% in 2024. And through 2025, the index bounced around, ending the year at an estimated 79.2 points.
Their verdict: Nigeria’s in a “high-risk fiscal environment.” The improvement is just valuation effects, not real fiscal strength. Translation: we’re still in deep.
The World Bank document even flags the risk itself. “Political and governance risks are elevated ahead of the 2027 elections,” it says. Reforms could get delayed. Or reversed. Happens all the time when politicians start campaigning.
So there you have it. $1.25 billion on the line. June 26 circled on the calendar. Debt climbing. Warnings flying. And an election looming. Business as usual in Nigeria’s fiscal house.
